Capital Survey Research Center (8/19-21, likely voters, 4/1 in parens):
Parker Griffith (D): 45 (48)
Wayne Parker (R): 40 (32)
(MoE: ±4.4%)
Republican Wayne Parker has closed the gap since April, but this is hardly surprising. Parker began his campaign as a largely unknown candidate, with memories of his two losses to Democrat Bud Cramer in 1994 and 1996 being extremely distant. However, after a contested primary, he’s boosted his name recognition and is now hitting the 40% mark.
Still, Democrat Parker Griffith, a state senator from Huntsville, retains the edge based on his superior credentials, the district’s ancestral Democratic tendencies, and heavier war chest.
SSP currently rates this race as Lean Democratic.
I had been worried when we ended up with the primary field we had, but Parker appears to be doing something right 🙂
I guess it took a while to do this poll for this district (thanks for finally getting it out) since Bud Cramer had virtually been unopposed for several cycles. Although it seems that it looks like a tight race between Griffith and Parker, once has to look back at the last competitive race in this district to decipher the numbers; that would be 1994.
In 1994, the Republicans took back both the House and Senate, and a number of Southern Democrats went down to defeat. Bud Cramer survived this onslaught with just over 50%, while Wayne Parker at the time took 49%. Even though on a map Cramer won more counties, Parker managed to carry Limestone and Morgan county, which contained the cities of Athens, Decatur and Hartselle. Cramer only squeaked to victory by carrying Madison county, which contained Huntsville. And given Cramer’s local connection to the district, it was probably another factor as to how he came to win in a Republican year.
Now in 2008, Wayne Parker is trying again. Only this time the national environment does not favor his party. And even if it did, he’s facing Griffith, whose political base is in Huntsville. And given that Griffith is the kind of conservative blue dog type that Cramer is, it’s hard not to see that would not appeal to the rural counties in that district.
The results are not going to be ridiculous landslides since there’s actually a Republican running. I think in the end the results would not be as close as 1994. They could be somewhere like 53-47 or 55-45 for Griffith on election day.
By the way, I just noticed that both the candidates’ surnames make up “Parker Griffith”. Maybe that’s a good sign.